By Josh Smith
Building adaptive intelligence capabilities for an increasingly sophisticated threat landscape
The tactical evolution demonstrated at WEF 2025 provides clear indicators for threat development in 2026. Based on our analysis of activist adaptation patterns and organizational changes within the WEF itself, several factors will likely shape the intelligence requirements for next year’s event.
Institutional Uncertainty and Increased Scrutiny
The resignation of Klaus Schwab as Chairman and Board member in April 2025, following allegations of personal misuse of funds and document manipulation, has introduced institutional instability that threat actors will likely exploit. This leadership transition places increased scrutiny on governance, branding, and stakeholder accountability across all WEF operations.
The governance challenges facing the WEF organization create additional vectors for protest activity, as activists are highly likely to target both the event’s substantive agenda and its institutional credibility. This dual focus requires intelligence capabilities that can assess both traditional security threats and reputational risks that could affect client participation decisions.
Escalating Tactical Sophistication
The successful infiltration tactics employed in 2025 establish a new baseline for threat actor capabilities. Organizations planning for 2026 should anticipate further refinement of these approaches, including more sophisticated credential exploitation, enhanced operational security among activist groups, and potential coordination between previously separate organizations.
The demonstration that formal business attire provides effective operational camouflage suggests that visual identification protocols will become increasingly unreliable. Intelligence requirements will shift toward behavioral analysis and pattern recognition that can distinguish between legitimate participants and threat actors regardless of appearance.
Venue and Location Considerations
While the WEF maintains its contract with Davos for the next three years, local rumors suggest potential venue changes beyond that timeframe. This uncertainty is likely to influence both participant planning and threat actor preparation, creating additional intelligence requirements for organizations supporting client attendance.
The proven effectiveness of targeting temporary staffing operations indicates that threat actors have identified systemic vulnerabilities in event security architecture. These vulnerabilities exist regardless of venue, suggesting that intelligence focus must expand beyond traditional crowd monitoring to include supply chain and workforce integrity assessment.
Intelligence Implications for 2026
Organizations preparing for WEF 2026 should evaluate their intelligence capabilities against the evolved threat landscape demonstrated in 2025. The integration of field intelligence with traditional security measures will become essential rather than optional, particularly for clients with high-profile status or controversial business operations.
The 45-minute intelligence advantage provided by field-based collection will likely become more critical as threat actors demonstrate increasing ability to adapt their operations in real-time. Remote monitoring systems that proved inadequate in 2025 will face even greater challenges as activist groups refine their operational security and deception techniques.
Strategic Recommendations for Organizations
Expand Intelligence Scope: Move beyond traditional crowd monitoring to include supply chain assessment, temporary workforce vetting, and behavioral analysis capabilities that can operate in environments where threat actors deliberately attempt to appear legitimate.
Invest in Human Intelligence: Field intelligence provides contextual awareness and adaptive collection capabilities that remote monitoring systems cannot replicate. Organizations should evaluate whether their current intelligence programs include sufficient human collection assets positioned to observe and analyze behavioral indicators in real-time.
Develop Threat Actor Pattern Analysis: The sophistication demonstrated by organized groups suggests that threat actors are conducting their own intelligence collection and operational planning. Intelligence programs must develop capabilities to assess and predict activist adaptation patterns rather than simply responding to observed activities.
Integrate Reputational Risk Assessment: The dual focus on substantive agenda items and institutional credibility requires intelligence capabilities that can assess both traditional security threats and broader reputational risks that could affect client participation decisions or operational requirements.
Enhance Real-Time Communication: The critical importance of immediate intelligence escalation during rapidly evolving situations requires communication protocols and decision-making processes that can operate effectively under pressure without the delays inherent in complex approval chains.
The Path Forward
The question for 2026 is not whether threat actors will continue to evolve their methods, but whether security and intelligence programs can adapt quickly enough to maintain protective effectiveness. The integration of field intelligence capabilities with existing security measures provides the adaptive awareness necessary to operate successfully in this evolving environment.
Field intelligence offers organizations the real-time situational awareness and behavioral analysis capabilities that will prove essential for maintaining client security and operational success at WEF 2026 and similar high-profile events where threat actors continue to demonstrate tactical innovation and operational sophistication.
The lessons from WEF 2025 extend beyond a single event and provide a framework for understanding how high-profile gatherings will evolve in an environment of increasing threat sophistication. Organizations must consider whether their current intelligence approaches can maintain effectiveness against adversaries who specifically study and exploit conventional security assumptions.
Looking Ahead
The evolution of threat tactics at major events reflects broader changes in how threat actors approach high-profile targets across all sectors. The sophistication demonstrated at WEF 2025 establishes new requirements for intelligence collection and analysis that will likely influence security approaches across multiple industries and operational environments.
Organizations responsible for executive protection must evaluate their intelligence capabilities not only against current threat methodologies but also against the demonstrated capacity for tactical adaptation and operational innovation shown by organized threat groups. The ability to maintain situational awareness and provide effective protection requires intelligence programs that can evolve as quickly as the threats they are designed to counter.
This concludes our two-part analysis of field intelligence requirements and threat evolution at the World Economic Forum. The tactical sophistication demonstrated in 2025 provides a clear framework for understanding intelligence requirements for high-profile events in an increasingly complex threat environment.
For organizations seeking to enhance their operational intelligence capabilities for WEF 2026 and other high-profile events, the AHNA Resource Center provides comprehensive field intelligence support tailored to evolving threat environments and specific operational requirements.